- cross-posted to:
- news@lemmy.world
- cross-posted to:
- news@lemmy.world
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Soo… gold and silver then? No clue how crypto is gonna hold up.
Hope he loses everything
The whole fucking thing needs to crash to the ground.
I hope your 401K is diversified because this will bring down a lot with its fall.
If it isn’t diversified, then you’re not investing. You’re gambling.
Hilarious that at the end of this specific article, for me, an ad popped up advertising AI investing 😂 Jesus we are so fucked
Honestly, if someone is goi g to pick shit at random, I rather have AI do it for 5 bucks a month than abnaker for 200k a year.
The next year before the Midterms is going to be a wild circus.
i hate peter thiel but i also hate nvidia and tesla so i hope this ends out somehow being bad for everyone
It will end badly for us.
Oh, it will. Bad for everyone human.
My bet is that he’s trying to start a panic in the markets. That way he can clean up on a short.
Wouldn’t that be below somebody like Thiel? I mean, he is a professional and this seems a bit too much “amateurish”…
Is this sarcasm or do you really believe it?
He believes that there is a bibilical antichrist alive right now, and he can stop it but also shouldn’t. He’s disconnected from reality so severely, he lives in a completely different world. The fact that he’s rich is not a testament of his professional capabilities, but to the fact that in current capitalist environment, the only prerequisite for being rich is to be lucky and have zero morals
This comment is a joke, right? How do you think these people became so wealthy in the first place?
I don’t say it would MORALLY below him, quiet the contrary, but more from a skill level. Acting so obviously would be just amateurish.
Acting so obviously would be just amateurish.
Please stop thinking of these people as massively brained smart people, instead of just being rich and lucky. These guys are just in it to make the number go up, don’t think they have any floor to how low these fuckers would sink
It would indeed indicate some kind of corrupt insider trading knowledge
You are assuming he’s doing it himself, instead of on advise if his financial advisors
Wouldn’t that be below somebody like Thiel?
He asks about the anti christ
Can we get a TL;DR for those who hate clickbait, please?
From what I can tell, it looks like there are a lot of loans out right now, the rate at which they are issued has increased since the beginning of the Trump presidency has increased dramatically, and this is like really bad because If those loans don’t get paid back then pillars start collapsing underneath the financial system. Lose too many of those and the whole thing comes crashing down.This one graph doesn’t represent all of the bad that is going on, it’s just a sort of a weathervane to tell you which way the wind is blowing. …and right now it’s blowing where the sun don’t shine.
You may ask what are NDFIs ?
(NDFIs) such as broker-dealers, hedge funds, private equity and credit funds, securitization vehicles and subprime auto lenders. Such lending to the financial sector has helped fuel record-high leverage among hedge funds, decade-high leverage among primary dealers, record-high and rising margin debt, and record-high and rising repurchase agreement (repo) lending to hedge funds and others, which in turn has helped fuel record-high asset prices in many cases
source again https://adamjosephson.substack.com/p/ndfi-loans-are-far-larger-than-we
I thought we decided to not post stonks crap in here. It‘s what completely ruined the technology community over at Reddit before the entire site was ruined.
When we are in the middle of a tech bubble and one of the richest and most connected men on earth decides to cash out, then that is not “stonks crap”, but relevant tech news. Some companies stock price rising by 2% is not news, but this? Yes.
The underlying story is the AI bubble that we all know will end badly. They are shoving lying and hallucinating AI on our devices and into our employment without consent. It’s going to come down, its a matter of when, not if.
AI bubble that we all know will end badly.
7 to 11X bigger than sub prime crash in 2008. NGL: watching Real Estate agents eating in soup kitchens was not a tragedy.
Unfortunately, these stocks being high are directly related to so much of the tech world being complete shit right now.
You see that is exactly the problem I have with these posts. You don‘t actually know if the trading portfolio of a mega evil asshole actually has any impact on the technology world. Stocks are just gambling and he could make the wrong move here. Like 90% of high traffic posts in r/technology was just random billionaires trading stocks at some point. It was utterly pointless.
While true, I gotta suspect that Peter Thiel, specifically, gets to peek under the hood before he makes his bets to a degree that most of us can only imagine.
This is the American version of Kremlinology: just like then all manner of non-political actions of members of the Soviet elites were studied to try to predict the direction of the Soviet Union, now all manner of non-political actions of members of the American elites are studied to try to predict the direction of the United States.
The reason for that kind of thing is that in systems were almost all of the real thinking, motivations and even politically revelevant actions of the elites controlling those nations are hidden or disguised, the only way to try and deduce what’s going on is to look at those things which by need or because they’re deemed to unimportant aren’t hidden or disguised.
Peter Tiel’s bulk stock sales and purchases are one of such non-political data points that might be important in predicting the short- and mid-term future of the US, at least Economically, which in turn has Political implications and more broadly for the future of American and Americans.
Sadly what American elites do in the Stockmarkets tells us a lot more about were they see the country going to than what they say, which itself already tells us way more than what Politicians say.
It’s a lot better than the practise of posting basically every news story because it tangentially involves a computer.
I want to see it, lemmys got a bigger problem with individuals trying to control what everyone else sees, you have many options like blocking the poster
Sucks that even though I’m not invested in anything, when this pops I won’t be able to buy food. Thanks a lot, wealth and “security” chasers.
That means the peak is here. The insider of all insiders sold? Dump everything!
Imagine if he waits for people to panic and sell off and then buys back into the market.
In this case, I expect that the market is due to tank for real soon, so that would maybe be a stupid move, but it seems like in general someone could literally trade on the perception that they’re an insider (regardless of whether they have real inside information or not) to manipulate the market in their favor.
I imagine this should count as illegal stock market manipulation, but the government would be too toothless to prosecute it.
I imagine this should count as illegal stock market manipulation, but the government would be too in on the scam to prosecute it.
FTFY
This is the government’s favourite sport. What do you think all the tariff announcements and later withdrawals are doing?
The MAGA government will get in on it. Trump will probably make some kind of ridiculous statement to kick off the plunge, so they can all profit on the slide, and rebuy at the bottom, and recycle the bubble.
They’d probably encourage it
The word is regulatory capture, and the game is upwards wealth transfer.
lol. prosecuting one of the in crowd? They’re not toothless (in this case at least), they’re just protecting one of their own.
The government did it itself just way bigger.
Who cares tho. Anyone who sells now still made massive gains. Only gamblers think about “potential gains”.
gamblers duck in and out over the course of hours and days with leverage
They’ll wave it off as him deciding Elon is the antichrist he’s been moaning about
This goes back to September.
Don’t make actions today based on something someone did months ago. Look at the situation now.
Nvidia is still being given piles of money. Everybody knows it’s gonna blow eventually… but if there’s a dip today it will rise again until a real crash once buyers stop paying.
DRAM going to the moon right now over demand is not a good sign of nvidia losing steam any time soon.
People are way too pessimistic about AI. NVIDIA is going to sell GPUs by the truckload until research finds a way around CUDA.
Sure, the pace of big leaps has slowed, but I liken this phase to the early 1900s. Cars were slow and unreliable, but once the technology took foothold and the 4th Industrial Revolution really took off, look how much progress was made. We went to the moon by the 60s.
I don’t doubt they’ll keep selling more GPUs, but AI certainly looks like a bubble that’s ready to burst with all the fake money going around in circles (assuming those diagrams are correct, which I assume they are).
Not the mention the lies that are keeping AI companies propped up, like AGI that will replace everything “in 3 months”. Pretty sure they missed that deadline already.
With the current “fake” money, lies and over-investment, something bad is surely going to happen unless someone steps in.
AI advances quite a bit each day, but I’m not sold on AGI becoming a thing any time soon, maybe even ever idk.
with all the fake money going around in circles (assuming those diagrams are correct, which I assume they are)
I’m not familiar with those. Do you have one handy or maybe some keywords so I can look it up?
Think this one was the one going around
Not sure what you can lookup, probably stuff like “AI investment bubble”
This is probably a good resource (haven’t read it) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AI_bubble (specifically look under
Speculation > Circular Financing, soz dunno how to link to a header)I don’t have a source and this might be old news, but a lot of the big deals right now are just “promises” to invest I think (money, etc not exchanged hands yet)
I really appreciate the info. Yikes! This isn’t looking good.
AI is causing water shortages, rising electric costs and chip shortages. AI is just a fancy search engine, that can be a useful tool. It was awesome for ai to read my blood test results but I don’t need it for most things, a waste of energy. Search engines should have an off button for ai, turn the lights off when we’re not using it.
Google search used to be able to find answers in the old days.
The sad truth is that today traditional search engines have been run into the ground by SEO, and some how chatbots backed by LLMs are producing what Google used to call the “I’m feeling Lucky” button. It used to just automatically take you to the first result for your query which was usually what you wanted.
Search engines should have an off button for ai,
Techbros won’t let that happen, because they’re all terrified that consumers will just shut off all the AI being crammed into everything and all their money will evaporate.
I totally understand the challenges with infrastructure that need solving, but that doesn’t mean AI is useless or that it’ll never be better than it is now.
Frankly, the “AI slop” crusade isn’t working. It’s time to choose a new fighter.
I cannot fathom why I wouldn’t be pessimistic about a tool that’s being crammed into places it doesn’t fit. There are a small handful of things generative algorithms are genuinely useful for. But expecting it to magically solve anything else is foolish, and always will be.
This is what I’m talking about. “Always will be”? AGI will come. Don’t bet against it.
I don’t disagree with you about AGI but the timeframe is the big question. Will it come in a decade or a century? Impossible to know.
It seems the current predictive machine learning is reaching it’s breaking point and improvements are slowing down. Is that because the limit is reached or just a temporary slowdown until something better is discovered. Also impossible to know
I have no doubts that AGI will eventually arrive unless we blow ourselves up
I don’t disagree with you about AGI but the timeframe is the big question. Will it come in a decade or a century? Impossible to know.
I have no doubts that AGI will eventually arrive unless we blow ourselves up
I was just about to say the same thing! I’m guessing it will take a bit longer than a decade and I’m not too optimistic about our chances of surviving that long. Well, at least surviving with all of our technology intact.
Interesting comparison, but how many of the original car companies are still around today? And did those early car companies inflate and manipulate the stock market?- they probably weren’t even publicly traded in the early days.
I think a crash is on its way regardless of how successful AI will be decades into the future
I really just see current AI as search 2.0.
It’s less dumb, but it’s still fucking dumb. Search gives me garbage results constantly, so does AI. AI is usually just a little bit easier to figure out since you just ask it natural language questions unlike traditional search.
When googling anything today you really can’t find useful information unless it’s a very specific set of instructions usually on a social media site. AI doesn’t give you nearly as much garbage unless you start asking it really complex questions.
The sad thing is, we’ve already had this figured out before.
15-20 years ago Google was almost perfect. It completely blew my mind how accurate and fast it was. Many times it felt like it was a mind-reader. I didn’t even type in half my question and it was already auto-completing it and showing the results, the first few of which contained a very exact and detailed answer that someone wrote on a forum somewhere or an article that gave me a complete and correct answer. Remember the old ‘I’m feeling lucky’ button which directly took you to the first search result? Yea, it was pretty usable back then, because the first result was usually correct. Pepperidge farm 'members…
And then the enshittification started by pumping the site full of ads. First the ads were pretty distinguishable from the real results and you could just scroll through them. Then they started to disguise the ads more and more like real results, and just showing more of them. And by now I think google is basically ONLY ads. There are NO real results on it. Virtually the only ‘content’ you are shown are what somebody has payed for google to show. Even if what you are looking for is a very well known, public interest fact, if nobody is paying for it, google is not going to show it. E.g. the other day google could not find me the website of a country-wide utility company for electricity by typing their exact name, because I guess they haven’t paid their monthly ads for google.
Luckily there are other alternatives to google, which still have ‘don’t do evil’ in their corporate philosophy. None of them are close to as good as google used to be, especially if you are not searching in english. But still a hell of a lot better than how google is now.
There is more to it than that… 20 years ago most of the people on the internet were likely similar to you, so most of their desired results were similar to yours.
Now people on the internet since the early 2000 are a minority compared to the “democratized” flood of users who joined in the mobile crapplication phase and started skewing search results towards simpler, less useful results.
SEO and ads didn’t help, but the whole ecosystem broke the model.
I don’t like elitism. The least techy people I know are the most culturally similar to what I was seeing on the Internet 20 years ago.
Because despite being less necessary for daily survival and thus less popular, it was also less structured and less hierarchical.
It’s the other way around honestly, the “techy types knowing better” have built leviathans.
You might not see it, but when people talk about some “better” Internet, an alternative timeline from the 90s to what we got, it’s funny. Because there are people who have that better Internet, Facebook’s and Google’s and others’ infrastructure inside is basically that. These companies and other such have been created and driven by that exact smarter kind of people which you seem to claim was opposed to the bad changes that transpired in the world and on the Internet. And the “democratized” crowd of monkeys was complaining, but couldn’t do anything. Then that same crowd, yes, started using what was given to them. Because the crowd of monkeys is wiser, they look at the whole forest and not some particular trees, as they are not the foresters, and they see when the wind changes. They are not interested in sectarian holywars over specific technologies or elitism on tech, because their interests and elitism are usually in different domains.
Each and every case of something not shit becoming shit is connected to a group of smartasses getting their way at forcing the world go some chosen path. Because nobody is smart enough to choose that path correctly, and when those not smart enough people can no longer get each and every other person’s approval to what they’re doing before doing that, they are turning things into shit.
I also remember how in year 2003 as a kid I loved HTML 4 and such as they were and didn’t understand what are all those movements to CSS, why Flash is bad, and so on. I was a monkey. There were some smarter monkeys who’d say there’s technological development ahead of us, and that it will be better than what we have. And there were some wiser monkeys, who’d predict correctly where all this is going.
OK, some of the wiser monkeys were also studying CS, so now I’m simplifying things to help my claim.
It’s just - when a smaller group decides for all, this is called degeneracy. Degeneracy is not a compliment to the organism described as degenerate.
None of what you said explains what they are talking about lol.
It’s like you have no experience with what they’re talking about
Nice troll bait.
No, I know EXACTLY what I’m talking about. Google’s old results were based on click-through determining which results were best. Now that the quality of the average user is lower, so is the quality of the average click-through result.
That’s as much response as you’re going to get though. You responded in bad faith, so now you’re going to talk to yourself if you choose to respond.
Google search was was better before, like 10 years ago
*Scooby-Doo voice
ruh oh
