Time to short the fuck out of them, I guess.
Does the US Stock Market even mean anything anymore? It’s been screwed and manipulated by so many people it’s mostly a dead corpse that holds no real value for society anymore. Just a broken money tool of the rich.
I think, at this point, it’s really just like a dozen people trying to control the world via trading money that is essentially meaningless to them.
Why do all these headlines say that a company “confidently” files for an IPO? I’m assuming it’s just AI, but man is that tired and confusing.
Confidentially. I read confidently at first too.
I guess ‘Slavering with greed’ has too many letters.
i cant wait until the bubble bursts and every single ai company collapses
I can. They’re propping up the whole stock market at this point. Pretty much the definition of “too big to fail.” So when they inevitably fail, Congress is going to give them our tax dollars.
Congress is already giving them your tax dollars. They’ve gotten a number of tax breaks and subsidies.
People are delusional in believing this will actually happen and it just makes everyone passive and have inverse effect we want for just and fair society. So maybe stop waiting and start doing.
A company worth 4 billion has produced 5 billionaire…its all a crock. Apologies, thought we were talking of Palantir.
Let the unhinged enshitification begin!
Wait how can they make it worse?
Well, they were one of the best of the turds. I was kind of hoping they’d stick around and be a mitigating force on the AI market that at least taps the brakes on all the bullshit. Seems unlikely now.
The usual IPO: layoffs, increase the price of the subscription, ads in the results.
But won’t that be good thing as it’ll make AI less appealing to middle managers who are basically the only people who actually want to use it.
By financially dragging anyone they can else they can in with them, in a desperate reach for riches. Or is it a desperate reach to try and cover their losses?
Probably both.
…begin?
I feel the enshitification is still yet partially hinged.
Interesting. I thought companies usually waited until they at least had a good product or cashflow before going for enshittification.
they enshittified first before actually putting out a “product”, also with so many AI ceos suddenly coming out trying to peddle some form of the "innovation, it got anthropoic nervous. Thiel, Karp, ALTMAN,google, MS,etc did it all the same time.
It is odd that the 3 big players are trying to rush to IPO… probably to dump their shit and cash out before the bag holders have time to sell… I’ve got a feeling they know it’s going to crash soon.
They have to beat OpenAI and SpaceXitter because they’re afraid the investors will jump on the first AI bandwagon that comes around and have less or no money for them.
And there is a waiting time after the IPO before cashing out is possible, half a year or so. Critics with some knowledge expected the bubble to pop somewhere in 2027, so with the half year waiting period they have to make their move soon or they’ll sell on the downslope.
Well they’ll have the insider knowledge before anyone else.
You forgot about option 3: VC money ran out
we will know things have gotten worst, when conferences suddenly stop hositng AI startups events/ideas all the time. conferences near where i work is soley only doing AI related events nothing else. adjacent industry will likely suffer to like catering food to Ai companies.
Got to cash out their shares using your pension fund before they go bankrupt.
Is there any way to get my 401k to not invest in this shit?
I don’t want my entire retirement to go up in smoke… Again. There isn’t even that much of it 😭Real answer:
Depends on who manages your 401k. Some servicers do allow ‘custom’ or otherwise ‘alternative’ management options, with some allowing you to focus on specific companies or industries.
Others might take your call at least and if you raise enough of a stink you might get shoved into an alternative plan out of spite, but that’s what you want, so you win.
Joke Answer
Take out all your money, pay off the fee, use the money to buy a used Komatsu D355A crawler tractor and at least a half pallet each of of concrete bags and rebar as well as an extra diesel tank and a decent amount of diesel. Then just find your local senator’s personal home and
Classic Killdozer
My split is currently 10% traditional “retirement target date” 20% small cap US and 70% International Index. All Vanguard. There are also emerging market and more granular international funds. Talk to your servicer.
Thing is, they tried to show that public adoption was large enough to warrant a $100B+ value, that basically everyone wanted AI. That was the difference between a $20B valuation and 100+. But several failures have occurred the last few months that hints at the public at large not wanting to adopt their tech in such quantities and the longer they wait the worse a signal it might send for the IPO. Lack of adoption, lack of progress towards AGI, dwindling returns, ballooning costs.
I estimate that the AI bubble will burst pre-IPO or during the IPO, thus not affecting the public at large. There’s still a risk that they fudge the IPO numbers hard enough to create FOMO and people wanting to buy but they’d have to go dangerously close to fraud territory to make a good case. Just watch out for the first AI IPOs. There’s likely a smaller AI company that’ll go first that’ll be a canary in the coal mine. If their IPO succeeds the big boys will make an attempt but if it fails they’ll likely postpone an IPO indefinitely, making it a long, dragged out market correction, not a quick pop.
Already happened with Cerebras and they landed at a stable 2x of the open. SpaceX is probably going to be next & set the real standard
Cerebras makes really interesting hardware though. The engineering, even just the packaging and cooling and power delivery, is utterly insane.
I have a server teardown saved that was so cool, they took it down from YouTube (for revealing too much I think).
I hope they survive the bubble so their stuff can be used for oldschool small-model ML, which is what their stuff is actually good at.
…And no one else is like that, except maybe Huawei. All the other “AI” ASICs are junk, nothingburgers, vaporware, or straight up pyramid schemes.
They’re quite likely to survive, even in a worst case scenario. AI isn’t going away and we still need hardware to run it. And in a worst case scenario they still have an inventory that keeps a certain value. For a pure AI company like OpenAI or Anthropic, in a worst case scenario their $100B could be worth 0 the next day. There’s no inventory to sell out like they could in the housing crisis in 2008 or with internet infrastructure during dotcom.
Those who sell shovels during a gold rush are generally safe. They might be overvalued during the bubble, but the shovels aren’t going away. IMO from the little info I have on Cerebras it looks like they’re even better positioned since their hardware is uniquely solving AI efficiency. During a market correction people start caring very much about efficiency and is almost entirely allergic to anything that smells of hype. If they need AI hardware they want the efficient ones.
Anthropic as actually a profitable company due to b2b inference sales.
It’s a speedrun 🙃
how can you file confidentially for a public offering?
that’s like throwing a public party where you are expecting to make money of the cover charge but not telling anyone about it
First an IPO has to get SEC approval. A confidential filing means they send the information to the SEC without it being generally available. The public prospectus follows after approvals are given.
Poor wording. The content of the filing is confidential, not the act of filing.
But don’t the public investors need that info to decide? Like a prospectus?
I don’t know that much about IPOs. I’m just assuming.
First the SEC and other authorities need to vet the offering. By filing confidentiality this initial stage is kept from competitors.
It means that instead of filing publicly 90-120 days ahead, they can hold off public prospectus to 21 days ahead of launch.
I had read confidently and was like I bet you smug bastards.
I predict it will be a very good buy. Anthropic is one of the leading AI companies.
I really hope that some of these big players in the AI market will stay private. There are already enough headwinds to them being a force of good in the world without having to report to shareholders of the lowest denominator.
I assume they are all running for the public exit because they are losing money faster than they can raise it and don’t have any reliable business models to which they can transition in the near term. If they can’t become profitable, the next best thing is to go public while the hype is hot and to cash out ASAP.
You mean you don’t want every AI company to be driven by shareholder interests?
There was an interesting podcast recently from freakonomics about Epic software and how it’s always been private. It reinforced my perception that companies do better for humanity when they stay private.
Most C corps have the same tragedy of the masses problem that we face with pollution and resource scarcity. Not to mention that the average anything is mediocre. So, in a word, yes.
Hmmm, well that can only go really bad or really good for investors, I would think. No middle ground here. It just depends on what the mob does.
