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Cake day: March 5th, 2024

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  • Yeah it’s true. Though with weather its more egregious, we have a huge dataset to test weather predictions vs weather results against, to test the accuracy of models.

    Our ability to test election forecasting percentages is limited to a dataset too small and too different year-to-year to call it tested. So, it really is much less grounded in empirical reality than weather forecasting. It’s mathematical voodoo, in my eyes closer to numerology than science.







  • The Saudis barely participated in Yom Kippur, from some brief googling they deployed a single battalion that saw a little bit of fighting in the Golan Heights. I honestly wasn’t even aware they had participated militarily.

    Their much bigger impact was the oil embargo against the US, which caused rather famous gas shortages here and one of the most severe recessions we’ve ever had, during the Nixon years. Perhaps seeing the rest of the coalition demolished was enough? Though there were clear reasons for the Israeli victory that aren’t that difficult to understand. It’s far more specific than just Israel strong or something like that. That oil embargo ended up proving the power of OPEC though, dramatically strengthening the Saudi’s position on the global stage, which persists to this day.

    Regarding NG, the main pipeline through the area for exporting Egyptian NG actually takes some pains to go around Israel, rather than through it.

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arab_Gas_Pipeline



  • If Israel was that useful as a tool to control Egypt, sure would like those billions of dollars back…

    And I have a feeling they’ll have some consequences. We may not all see the Israeli-Palestinian Conflict the same way, I have a feeling you’re not aware of any of the Arab atrocities from the early 20th century, before Israel was ever a nation. But this time they’ve lost a lot of support in the US for the first time in our history, and that will likely have an impact on future political calculations.


  • This betrays a startling lack of awareness of just how extensive US partnerships are across the globe. The US has sent tens of billions of dollars in military and economic aid to Egypt. Close ties with Saudi Arabia. Close ties with Morocco. Most Mediterranean countries are in NATO, actually. This isn’t even to speak of our own military bases littered throughout both Africa and the Middle East.

    Does anything going from Asia to Africa even go through Israel? I’d think they’d usually take sea routes through the Indian Ocean. Do we really need some unsinkable aircraft carrier anymore when we have literally dozens of our own airstrips all over the region?

    That said, I do agree with your first two points. Ukraine is a proxy war, and supporting Israel is the point. Not sure it’s actually more important than any actual US territory though.



  • There needs to be a law against what they did before they could be indicted for anything. Afaik there is no law against being a foreign propagandist.

    Even the two handlers themselves would have been fully legal if they had simply registered as foreign agents.

    Our first amendment protects these things, for better or for worse. It protects the right to lobby the government (petition for redress in the official language), with no bar to people doing it on behalf of foreign governments, which is why all we do is make them register under FARA for transparency. We’ve lived under this legal system through the whole Cold War.

    Speech is similarly protected, even if it is at the behest of foreign governments.

    Our first amendment protects lies and propaganda just the same as everything else, which is why any of us can still go look at RT right now if we wanted. If we can’t even ban RT with all the sanctions we have on Russia right now, how the hell are we supposed to go after these American citizens?



  • Why would they want a deal? This is all going according to plan. Does anyone actually think they didn’t expect Gaza to get leveled after Oct 7th, that Netanyahu would be nice or reasonable about it? Or maybe that they could stop the Israeli air force or something? I don’t think they’re that dumb, and it’s one of the reasons they invested in the tunnel network in the first place.

    And even if they did want a deal, Netanyahu doesn’t, because the war is his excuse to stay in power and stave off investigations.



  • No, I am definitely complaining about the article’s portrayal of the therapy.

    You should reread my comment, which specifically said the judge was being derelict in his duty if he wasn’t taking a broader context into account.

    I do understand that reading comprehension isn’t the strongest point of the internet ragebait-swallowing community. Why you all are so eager is a little beyond me though. Ultimately you should be remembering the profit-driven priorities of media companies, and how their models often revolve around triggering people’s emotions.




  • No, it isn’t at all. If you have an arachnophobia, treating your fear is not making you like spiders. Simply addressing the aversion. Nobody properly engaging in the therapy is trying to brainwash kids into loving someone, just reducing the aversion.

    Check something more rigorous about the topic, don’t just use news articles of cases of failure and unethical choices to form your full opinion. You know damn well how the news is, what they profit from, how times where the therapy actually went well because it was used appropriately will not be reported. And social media isn’t much better when it comes to factuality.

    The Psychology Today article I posted properly cited its sources.