• UnderpantsWeevil@lemmy.world
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    7 months ago

    I should note that Obama had a sub-50 approval rating in 2012 when he beat Mitt Romney. But Romney also wasn’t pulling in record-breaking primary vote totals or seeing huge groundswells of MAGA-tier support.

    Biden coasted to victory in 2020 thanks to a pandemic everybody hated and four years of Trump fresh in their minds. I don’t think he has those advantages anymore.

    • givesomefucks@lemmy.world
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      7 months ago

      Biden coasted to victory in 2020

      What?

      Are you talking about popular vote? That sadly doesn’t matter.

      Biden won a handful of states by razor thin margins, which got him the presidency. And it took his campaign spending a literal billion dollars to accomplish that

      https://www.cnn.com/2020/11/09/politics/2020-election-trump-biden-closest-states/index.html

      And he’s less popular now… Not just nationwide, but in state polling for those states.

      We don’t live in a direct democracy, so you have to look kinda close to see what’s happening.

      • UnderpantsWeevil@lemmy.world
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        7 months ago

        Biden won a handful of states by razor thin margins

        Biden’s margins improved substantially from election day, as the mail-in ballots filled up the vote count. Pennsylvania’s margin grew by 80,000 votes from the razor thin win he had when polls closed. He won states Democrats hadn’t taken since the 1970s. He nearly swept the Midwest, with the tipping point state of his win being Wisconsin.

        And he’s less popular now… Not just nationwide, but in state polling for those states.

        Oh yeah. He’s absolutely fucked now. Very real chance he loses in a landside in 2024 as all of those Obama-Trump-Biden states flip back into Trump’s column.

    • BreakDecks@lemmy.ml
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      7 months ago

      To be fair, the only state he broke primary vote total records in this year was New Hampshire (pop. 1.4m).

      He’s breaking his own records from 2016, but the conditions of the 2016 primary and the 2024 primary are pretty different, given that there was never any real competition against him this year, mostly just a clown show.