He invested $800M in Yahoo! In 2008 and lost it all, among a whole series of other fuck ups. I think he’s an illustration of the rule that if you’re rich enough you don’t have to be very good at anything
Yeah. “Genius investors” are just people who have insider information and know how to cover their tracks (or don’t need to).
Otherwise? Diversify and just ride the general economy. Barring insider information, it wins every single time.
Maybe thiel has insider info. Maybe not. Pretty much everyone assumes this is a bubble that will pop. I am a lot more skeptical (how many “bubbles” have we had that mostly just petered out or readjusted to reasonable levels?). But there is also an argument to get out while it is “high enough” and leave others to hold the bag if/when it does pop.
He’s not. Nvidia is the only company actually making money from this. The bubble bursting doesn’t really hurt them at all. Their company isn’t based solely on AI, and they have plenty of other baskets to shift their eggs into.
Yeah, but that’s almost entirely because they’ve shifted hardware priorities to AI and inflated their pricing to capitalize on the corporate grift, over everything else because of the bubble and limited competition. Losing that means little actually changes, they just shift hardware sales back to other customers instead of telling everyone elss to go fuck themselves while they send everything to AI companies.
I don’t know if Thiel is a smart investor, but if this is on of the first sign of the AI bubble burst, yay!
He invested $800M in Yahoo! In 2008 and lost it all, among a whole series of other fuck ups. I think he’s an illustration of the rule that if you’re rich enough you don’t have to be very good at anything
Yeah, but also if your rich enough, you accidentally decide crashes. Him selling almost surely caused others to sell, and many to become skeptical.
Yeah. “Genius investors” are just people who have insider information and know how to cover their tracks (or don’t need to).
Otherwise? Diversify and just ride the general economy. Barring insider information, it wins every single time.
Maybe thiel has insider info. Maybe not. Pretty much everyone assumes this is a bubble that will pop. I am a lot more skeptical (how many “bubbles” have we had that mostly just petered out or readjusted to reasonable levels?). But there is also an argument to get out while it is “high enough” and leave others to hold the bag if/when it does pop.
I think for most people that means some weeks you buy food, some weeks you pay rent.
He’s not. Nvidia is the only company actually making money from this. The bubble bursting doesn’t really hurt them at all. Their company isn’t based solely on AI, and they have plenty of other baskets to shift their eggs into.
The actual fabs are making money too. Nvidia doesnt actually make anything
TSMC makes the GPU, micron makes the VRAM.
There are 2 anonymous customers who are responsible for 39% of nvidia’s 2nd quarter sales. These 2 companies are almost certainly AI related.
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/08/28/nvidias-top-two-mystery-customers-made-up-39percent-of-its-q2-revenue-.html
Yeah, but that’s almost entirely because they’ve shifted hardware priorities to AI and inflated their pricing to capitalize on the corporate grift, over everything else because of the bubble and limited competition. Losing that means little actually changes, they just shift hardware sales back to other customers instead of telling everyone elss to go fuck themselves while they send everything to AI companies.
Before AI pops, American AI will.
Which is good, it’ll mitigate the damage.