It’s impossible to predict specific solar flares. They’re correlated with sunspots, but not closely enough to tell us anything specific and actionable, and as Gates9 mentioned downthread, we’re near solar maximum, so the sun’s at a rolling boil right now.
And, as Gates9 also mentioned, we know shockingly little about the sun. There are some good magnetohydrodynamic models of solar lines of flux in the corona and their relationship to sunspots and flares, but it’s still early days. As to what’s up in the interior of the sun, we have some grossly macro-level physical theories, but that’s about it. And even with the corona, there’s no credible explanation of something as basic as why it’s so damn hot.
We are in “solar maximum” so heightened activity is expected but we are also not very far in our study and understanding of the sun, and “X-class flares” are fairly unusual.
Did we know this was coming or was it a surprise?
It’s impossible to predict specific solar flares. They’re correlated with sunspots, but not closely enough to tell us anything specific and actionable, and as Gates9 mentioned downthread, we’re near solar maximum, so the sun’s at a rolling boil right now.
And, as Gates9 also mentioned, we know shockingly little about the sun. There are some good magnetohydrodynamic models of solar lines of flux in the corona and their relationship to sunspots and flares, but it’s still early days. As to what’s up in the interior of the sun, we have some grossly macro-level physical theories, but that’s about it. And even with the corona, there’s no credible explanation of something as basic as why it’s so damn hot.
We are in “solar maximum” so heightened activity is expected but we are also not very far in our study and understanding of the sun, and “X-class flares” are fairly unusual.
https://science.nasa.gov/science-research/heliophysics/nasa-noaa-sun-reaches-maximum-phase-in-11-year-solar-cycle/
We should probably shut down any of that book-learnin’ and knowing real facts about the world. Does fElon know about this “waste, fraud, and abuse”?
Out only hope that take being naked X-class will keep him interested long enough to no cancel funding, but not long enough to declare war on the su…
Oh, he thinks we can pull a reverse Dyson sphere to shade the earth enough to reverse climate change now.
Isn’t climate change was just a woke mind virus thing though? /s
Given this timeline, no, not a surprise
It hit us like a sudden monsoon in Goa.