- Private payrolls drop 33,000 in June
- ADP historically is poor predictor of official nonfarm payrolls
- Challenger report shows sharp drop in layoffs
WASHINGTON, July 2 (Reuters) - U.S. private payrolls fell for the first time in more than two years in June as economic uncertainty hampered hiring, but low layoffs continued to anchor the labor market.
Private payrolls dropped by 33,000 jobs last month, the first decline since March 2023, after a downwardly revised increase of 29,000 in May, the ADP National Employment Report showed on Wednesday. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast the report would show private employment increasing by 95,000 following a previously reported gain of 37,000 in May.
There were job losses in the professional and business services, education and health services, and financial activities sectors. But the leisure and hospitality, manufacturing, and construction industries added jobs.
The ADP report, jointly developed with the Stanford Digital Economy Lab, was published ahead of the more comprehensive employment report for June due to be released on Thursday by the Labor Department’s Bureau of Labor Statistics. There is no correlation between the ADP and BLS employment reports.
The BLS’ employment report is being published a day early because of the Independence Day holiday on Friday. Economists shrugged off the decline in the ADP measure, noting its poor track record predicting the official payrolls count.
“Use ADP only to gauge the big picture,” said Carl Weinberg, chief economist at High Frequency Economics.
“Right now, that picture shows ADP’s private sector employment estimates declining steadily since December. Today’s big drop underscores that decaying trend.”
U.S. stocks were mixed in early trading. The dollar rose versus a basket of currencies. Longer-dated U.S. Treasury yields rose.
The difference between a layoff and a RIF is that a layoff means they can’t afford to pay for specific positions right now and that if they can in the future then they will reopen those jobs, while a RIF means they are changing the structure of the company and all those jobs are going away permanently.
Well it doesn’t matter to me because I just got hired at a new shop and start Monday. Union machinist position this time . I think 4 days for a raise and better benefits is my record lmao I’ll have to send those assholes a thank you note
That’s awesome. Good for you!
I hate when companies throw away good employees just to chase a slightly higher profit margin, so it’s nice when it works out better for the people they treated badly.