This is an op-ed by Jennifer Parker, a defence and national security expert associate at the ANU’s National Security College. She has served for more than 20 years as a warfare officer in the Royal Australian Navy.
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A major flaw in Australia’s Taiwan debate is the simplistic “will we or won’t we intervene?” framing, which assumes any conflict would be confined to Taiwan. In reality, an invasion would be far more complex. The Taiwan Strait’s geography, weather and Taiwan’s defences already make it a formidable task. That challenge is amplified by expected US and Japanese intervention from bases in Japan and the Philippines, forces China would try to neutralise pre-emptively.
Any invasion would almost certainly immediately trigger a broader regional conflict involving one of Australia’s key allies and at least two of its closest security partners. In a region-wide conflict, Australia’s national security interests would be jeopardised, and it would have little choice but to respond. Its key role would be defending Australia and its sea lines of communication.
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Staying on the sidelines would be inconsistent with our national interests. Australia’s security, including maritime trade, would be directly threatened. Not to mention Australia’s obligations under the 1951 ANZUS Treaty.
It would also seriously damage Australia’s credibility with key security partners and regional neighbours. Moreover, if China resorts to force against Taiwan, it is unlikely to stop there. Beijing is also engaged in maritime and territorial disputes with South-East Asian states and South Korea and Japan. A successful invasion would embolden further aggression.
A Chinese invasion of Taiwan would not be an isolated act – it would trigger a regional conflict with direct consequences for Australia’s security. An invasion may not be imminent or inevitable, but China’s clear preparations demand serious attention. Australia must invest in its own defence – not because war is certain, but because deterrence depends on capability. And if deterrence fails, we must be ready to defend our vital interests.
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I don’t think they will straight up invade.
I think they will blockade, fund disinformation campaigns, increase “cooperation”, it’ll be a government capture à la Hong Kong.
If there’s anything they learned from the three day “special operation” - it’s this. It’s way easier if they can avoid direct military action.
HongKong was captured and occupied as a British colony and the waning power of the UK led them to finally agree to give back the land.
Did you miss the “one country two systems” -> “national security law” -> anyone who opposes the ruling party goes straight to jail thing.
(Which happened 20 years later).
Australia’s security, including maritime trade, would be directly threatened.
Maritime trade with whom?
Maritime trade with whom, motherfucker‽Consent manufacturing machine go brrrrrr
The Malacca Strait is used by most container and vehicle ships coming to Australia from Europe. It’s the main route for shipping from the Indian Ocean trading with Asia. It carries about 80,000 ships a year. Once ships from Australia reach North Asia or pass through the Indonesian archipelago, they enter the busiest shipping lanes in the world. The ships carrying Australia’s bulk commodity exports are a significant presence: it’s estimated they account for 29% of global bulk shipping, however the 8 million containers handled each year at Australia’s ports are less than 1% of the global total. So, absolutely disastrous for Australian trade while leaving the rest of the world largely unaffected.
How many years now has China been just about to invade Taiwan? I swear I’ve been hearing this since I was 13. I really doubt they will ever militarily invade the PRC unless it is made to pose a dorect threat to them.
Happy cake day!
unless it is made to pose a direct threat to them
This is some unfortunately weasely phrasing when it comes to international diplomacy. Don’t forget Israel claimed that Iran was “posing a direct threat to them” before they proactively decided to fire missiles at Iran.
I certainly hope China doesn’t invade Taiwan. But if they do, I have almost zero doubt that it will be after fabricating some sort of nonsense casus belli that gives them a veneer of legitimacy.
I have almost zero doubt that it will be after fabricating some sort of nonsense casus belli that gives them a veneer of legitimacy.
The People’s Republic of China already take the official position that the Chinese Civil War is an ongoing conflict. And while I haven’t looked much into the Republic of China (Taiwan) position on the ground, taking their constitution at face value, they officially claim mainland China is their territory. So I don’t think the casus belli will be a problem, at least internally.
Damn has it really been three years? Nuts.
Anyway yeah I don’t mean if the CPC claims it does, I mean if it actually does. As things currently stand they already have more justification than most western countries have given for their invasions into foreign land (see the US military base and political funding in Taiwan) but I don’t think they will actually do anything unless there are major troop movements or missile deployments to the island. Crossing my fingers that doesn’t happen though because it will absolutely be the beginning of WW3.
I always like to bring up this comparison bc it feels very apt. Imagine if China had a military base in Cuba? Imagine Chinese troops off the coast of the US and how the US might react to that? I think China has shown considerable restraint compared to its economic and military equals in this matter. They seem genuinely committed to a peaceful reunification unless this path is made absolutely impossible.
Damn has it really been three years?
Only 2.
unless this path is made absolutely impossible
That’s the problem though. Taiwan clearly does not want reunification. Peaceful or otherwise. Younger generations are increasingly in favour of either status quo (de facto independence without any official declaration) or even explicit official independence. And the increasingly aggressive rhetoric and actions from China are only pushing the Taiwanese more in that direction. Consider: in 2018 support for moving towards unification was at its highest in over 15 years, but then China’s human rights abuses in Hong Kong, and more recently its aggressive military drills in and near Taiwanese airspace and waters have driven that down to an all-time low.
So realistically, there are only two paths to unification. Through China doing a complete 180 on its foreign policy posture and showing it can sustain that reversal in the long term, as well as showing it can respect human rights. Or, through force.
