• 6 Posts
  • 900 Comments
Joined 5 months ago
cake
Cake day: April 10th, 2025

help-circle

  • You have it backwards.

    Private Equity Firms who basically bought houses to speculate with, planning on selling them to a family?

    They already did a bunch of price cuts in the last quarter or two.

    They arguably kicked this all off from ‘things don’t look so good’ to ‘oh fuck, blaring klaxons and red lights’.

    Why?

    Because they borrowed the money to buy the houses with, using access to credit sources ‘families’ don’t have.

    They’re also a lot better at data analysis than ‘families’.

    Basically, its the stock market ‘smart money vs dumb money’ dynamic.

    They cut prices first because they know a small loss is better than a large loss.

    ‘Families’ tend to not understand that.

    The other thing thats fun is … PE just converted a lot of those homes they would not be able to sell at the price they wanted… to rentals! For whole families!

    Yay cashflow!

    This (and other things) is actually already starting to slowly drive down rental rates for apartments and such in areas where they did that more heavily.

    Uh but yeah, sorry, you got it backwards, PE firms have bigger pockets and can do math objectively better than most families: A slight ding to ROI is better than a massive one.

    With families, its more of a personal existential crisis situation, with PE, its literally their dayjob.

    Yeah, nobody in the ‘current quarter profits are all that matters’ world is gonna sit on a house for a decade in hopes of an eventual return, taking losses for that whole decade on those properties in the mean time.





  • You have to actually be brain damaged if you think credit card rates are going down.

    Like, smashing your face into a wall repeatedly, brain damaged.

    US consumer credit scores are tanking, default rates on auto loans are skyrocketing, we will probably see the same with houses this or next quarter, something like 5 million (former?) students just all became some kind of delinquent or massively overburdened by the resuming student loan payments…

    …credit card rates are going to go up, with the possible exception of those who more or less are deca-millionaires in networth and also have ~800 or better scores.

    Everyone else is in for a very rough time.


  • This also means that home prices, their actual prices, have to go down, if they actually want to sell.

    But, the market could remain half frozen, as it roughly has been for a while.

    I saw another report, I wouldn’t be able to post it as a news article because it isn’t a news article… basically, in the last month, something like 50% of houses that get pulled off market (delisted) are being pulled off by incredulous boomers who can’t believe that no one can afford to buy their house at the price that ‘they think its worth’.

    So… yeah, basically, the Boomers get to enjoy a housing crash right as its time for them to retire and downsize, after spending the last ~20 years making it near impossible for anyone currently under 40 to be able to afford a home.

    Great work, thanks everyone.

    Wave bye bye to your ‘oh, we’ll leave you the house’ inheritance.

    Yeah the uh… median new home buyer age is now like… 38.

    It was 28, in the 1980s.






  • I literally only ever had a twitter account… when Elon announced he was buying it, and I created that account soley in order to scream at him untill I was banned, probably by him personally.

    All these short form, highly algorithmically manipulated communication platforms have given everyone brainrot, ruined their attention spans, made everyone angry stupid and tribal, and spread astounding amounts of mis and disinformation.

    It was all downhill after Facebook introduced Farmville, and fully realized that every aspect of the human psyche can be gamified and manipulated.

    If you do not realize that persistent exposure to a dopamine delivery device has fucked up nearly everyone on a fundamental level, and has created addiction/withdrawal behaviors in a large subset of those people, particularly if they’ve been exposed since a young age, you are either an addict in denial yourself, or you have not read enough of the studies on this.