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So, you gave me the link because you think their endowment can’t do what I said it should do, is that right?

So, let me get this straight: are you claiming that Harvard can’t use ANY of its endowment to support research? So when you said “where will they get the money” and I said “from their endowment” and you said “you don’t know what an endowment is” you are saying that because you think none of their endowment can be used to support research? Is that right?

The donations that people have made over the years, giving them the largest endowment in world history?

It’s kinda like asking “how is Elon Musk going to pay for that?” I don’t know, how about with some of his money.

I think this is a fundamentally different way of thinking that we have. The way to win at betting is to have a better distribution than the other guy. You don’t need to have high confidence about any particular outcome, you just need to recognize when the distribution of odds differ from the true odds. Strong favorites in a low information environment indicate a chance to make good money. Sure, any given low information environment, like a papal conclave, may occur infrequently, and you could lose money on any one event, as is the nature of betting, but if you can recognize when the market is likely to be wrong you can extract money from it. Really, that is the only way to extract money from it.

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In situations like this it may make sense to just bet on all the underdogs. The market is highly overconfident in its information, you think the market’s information is crap, so you just bet against the market by taking the underdogs.