

Sure, I’m not certain at all, maybe, but are you certain enough to bet your life on it?
Sure, I’m not certain at all, maybe, but are you certain enough to bet your life on it?
I never said how long I expected it to take, how do you know we even disagree there? But like, is 50 years a long time to you? Personally anything less than 100 would be insanely quick. The key point is I don’t have a high certainty on my estimates. Sure, might be perfectly reasonable it takes more than 50, but what chance is there it’s even quicker? 0.01%? To me that’s a scary high number! Would you be happy having someone roll a dice with a 1 in 10000 chance of killing everyone? How low is enough?
It makes my blood boil when people dismiss the risks of ASI without any notable counterargument. Do you honestly think something a billion times smarter than a human would struggle to kill us all if it decided it wanted to? Why would it need a terminator to do it? A virus would be far easier. And who’s to say how quickly AI will advance now that AI is directly assisting progress? How can you possibly have any certainty on any timelines or risks at all?
Something you may not have considered is that the majority of our brains are used for things like sensory input and motor control, not for thinking. This is why brain size relative to body size is so important. A whale has a far larger brain than you or I, but is significantly less intelligent.
I agree with you, but this is a really bad counterargument to what they said. Even widely agreed politeness conventions to a degree ‘compel’ speech, so the debate is really around what speech is acceptable for society to encourage/suppress, rather than whether cultural changes are changing what people are compelled to say. Also, I don’t think they said anything that suggested they are more concerned by that than hateful violence?
The defence against people pretending to be moderate is not to hit everyone who introduces themselves as a moderate in the face with a hammer.
Give meta the benefit of the doubt? Are you joking? We literally know exactly how awful they are in every area they touch.
Ultimately the only thing that matters is if the fediverse is able to reach critical mass, who really gives a shit if reddit manages to limp along for years of gradual decline after all the good contributors leave?
Well I wont be, and just because one thing might be higher probability than another, doesn’t mean it’s the only thing worth worrying about.