Kerrville is too small to get cited as an example in a big national report on Texas flood issues, so my citations are meant to show this is a problem for the whole state rather than a particular town. If you go to USGS, you’ll see they don’t even have a flow gauge upstream of Camp Mystic. The closest is downstream at gauge:hntt2(click dot on map to see readings). Simple link without map: https://water.noaa.gov/gauges/HNTT2
We’ve known for decades that Texas has loose regulations allowing development to ignore flooding concerns. "Texas shoulders the most urban stormwater runoff of any state in the country ". After Hurricane Harvey flooded Houston in 2017, everyone was talking about the development issue, but alas, mostly just about Houston instead the state as a whole.
Post Harvey, The Atlantic had a big piece on how, “The combination of climate change and aggressive development made an event like this almost inevitable.”
Also from that 2017 disaster, The Washington Post concluded:
Thus, to ensure acceptable stormwater-system performance, jurisdictional agencies and officials must ensure that the type, timing and amount of real estate development are in sync with the capacity and configuration of the jurisdiction’s storm system. Many communities are at risk because of overbuilding or for allowing building in areas with inadequate infrastructure.
Some argued that “Houston isn’t flooded because of its land use planning” … but while the author there is an expert in urban planning, he is not an expert in hydrology.
Of course the recent tragedy was no where near Houston. It was closer to Austin and San Antonio. On Austin: “Flash flooding is a pressing concern for Austin, so much so that it has been labeled the “Flash Flood Alley” of Texas.” On San Santonio:
San Antonio is a populated area in one of the most flash-flood prone regions in North America. SARA manages a series of structural controls (dams and drainage systems) to help prevent and/or reduce flood problems. For example, the San Antonio River Tunnels (see illustration) proved invaluable as they diverted water safely underneath downtown during the 1998 and 2002 floods.
I don’t want to hear “No warning at all.” This was a risk known for decades where the state and municipalities decided they’d rather allow an eventual catastrophe than spend the money needed to prevent one.
The article does not got into specifics. It only states the percentage of breeders in each sector that have had violations in the last five years, and the whole thing is basically a reprint from this source . The time spans feel wonky. For the last five years, 41% of the licenced breeders they tracked had a violation. For the last three years, the violation rates of tracked licensed breeders have been: Breeders to stores: 36%, Puppy stores: 63%. Rather than any number of years they only say ‘currently’ for these rates: Breeders to brokers: 34%, Online sales: 42%.
I agree wirth you, but since I’m not a hydrologist nor any other type of expert, I included that contrary piece as an opposing view on whether better planning could have helped. Since we now know that there’s been a plan to have warning sirens in the works for years, I think it obvious that the area is a known flood risk and at least that much COULD have been done.