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Cake day: August 22nd, 2023

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  • Haole means white. There’s history and original translations that have different meanings, but in modern usage I’ve only ever heard it meaning white. It’s definitely not used for “not family” and it’s not really applied to other races unless it’s to describe them as being like stereotypical white people. Uncle/auntie is just an informal honorific for anyone older than you (no race or family restrictions). I’d be described as a haole and referred to as uncle by people younger than me with no implications about where I’m from. There are plenty of white people born in Hawaii that wouldn’t think twice about being labeled haole, even some with Native Hawaiian ancestry.

    It’s not necessarily a slur though, that depends on context, but in the context of threatening or beating the shit out of someone it’s kind of hard to argue they were just using it neutrally. Like it’s not impossible, but you’re really starting at a disadvantage.







  • A) My student government certainly didn’t have a budget worthy of boycotting anything.

    B) Do it anyway. Boycotts are speech, you’re in California, and students aren’t obligated to do anything because the school would prefer it. Hell, do it because they told you not to.

    C) Don’t boycott a specific country. Boycott all countries found to be plausibly engaging in genocide. Or all countries currently occupying extraterritorial land. Or all countries currently engaged in large scale offensive military operations. Give an exception for the US of A because you’re so patriotic. Israel is in a small club of rogue nations and we don’t generally do business with them.







  • There’s no real solution for selection bias if you don’t have other respondents of that group. With something like race or education, you have their demographics and can upsample those that do respond. But it the group is specifically defined by not wanting to respond to polls and that comes with biases to the poll questions, you don’t have anything to upsample.

    Now whether such a group is really a distinct entity out there that can’t be kind of approximated by people who share other traits is the question. If white conservatives have a spectrum of trust in pollsters and the non-responders would just answer questions the same you’re fine. But it those with low trust are also more anti-vax or some sort of distinct population like an insular community, you couldn’t just approximate them with people who did respond.



  • Swing voters are not really the sole political deciders. They matter extra because they effectively count as two votes, but base turnout is often a larger effect than the actual swing voters.

    About 15% of Biden’s voters did not vote, 5% switched to Trump and 1% voted for someone else. That’s compared to 11% of 2020 Trump voters, who sat it out, 3% who switched to Harris and 1% who went for someone else.

    So of 2020 voters, Harris lost a net 4% to the couch and 2% to switching. You can count the switchers twice because they were a lost vote for Harris and a gained vote for Trump, so that’s basically a wash. Trump then won a net 1% of people who didn’t vote in 2020 (which coincidentally is roughly the same size as an individual candidate’s 2020 voters). So doing better with any of those groups could have swung the election.





  • I dunno not being willing to even carry bags, things that are literally made for carrying, kinda seems like a you problem rather than a first world problem. Like there’s the regular biases toward convenience we all have and there’s Jesus fucking Christ how are you this incapable of tolerating the most minor of tasks.

    You know how you handle the onerous task of carrying a bag while shopping? You put the bags in the basket with everything else, put the food in the bags themselves, or just loop the handle over your shoulder.