Most of them would be from an academic source most likely. That kind of polling would be very expensive and time consuming. There probably aren’t commercial, short term polls with that level of rigor.
A 2020 study published by Berkeley found that the accuracy of election surveys (which are conducted similarly to opinion polls) was grossly exaggerated.
A 2018 Cambridge study says “the level of error has always been substantially beyond that implied by stated margins of error.”
Okay, since that sort of polling would be very expensive and time consuming and people would like to know the opinions of their fellow citizens in aggregate, what would you suggest?
Nothing. That information is not actually useful for most people. But I fully acknowledge that’s just my opinion.
A better solution would be different metrics for different topics. Consumer faith in the economy can be measured by spending, especially if that data could be broken down by demographic. That data absolutely exists, whether businesses would make it public is abother thing entirely.
The results of the election, especially given it was less than six weeks ago, is a much more compelling data point for how Americans feel about the president elect and his policies. Just under half of all Americans voted, so that’s a pretty decent sample.
The “best solution” would be for news organizations to pool resources and do it more reliably. That would mean no more flash polls or opinion polls, and favor longer term tracking of public sentiment.
Social media companies also have much more robust sets of data that better encapsulate public opinion, they could share that quarterly or even just sell reports to news outlets.
But polls are so unreliable and so many people blindly trust and believe them, eliminating that entire class of reporting would be preferable to continuing to publish and circulate that information.
Have you seen the final count of the vote (which was released a week or two ago)? Neither candidate won the popular vote (Trump 49.9%, Kamala 48.4%) which was not predicted by the polling. They were projecting a very close race, but everything else was wrong.
Read what I wrote slowly again. I said Pew was the gold standard, said how many they polled in a recent survey as an example, and highlighted that they posted their data and methodology. I never said there was a minimum.
CNBC doesn’t provide any of their data, has no published methodology - this might as well be results from an online survey like Fox News does all the time.
I have never seen any sort of poll of Americans several orders of magnitude more than 1000. Can you give an example please?
Most of them would be from an academic source most likely. That kind of polling would be very expensive and time consuming. There probably aren’t commercial, short term polls with that level of rigor.
A 2020 study published by Berkeley found that the accuracy of election surveys (which are conducted similarly to opinion polls) was grossly exaggerated.
A 2018 Cambridge study says “the level of error has always been substantially beyond that implied by stated margins of error.”
Okay, since that sort of polling would be very expensive and time consuming and people would like to know the opinions of their fellow citizens in aggregate, what would you suggest?
Nothing. That information is not actually useful for most people. But I fully acknowledge that’s just my opinion.
A better solution would be different metrics for different topics. Consumer faith in the economy can be measured by spending, especially if that data could be broken down by demographic. That data absolutely exists, whether businesses would make it public is abother thing entirely.
The results of the election, especially given it was less than six weeks ago, is a much more compelling data point for how Americans feel about the president elect and his policies. Just under half of all Americans voted, so that’s a pretty decent sample.
The “best solution” would be for news organizations to pool resources and do it more reliably. That would mean no more flash polls or opinion polls, and favor longer term tracking of public sentiment.
Social media companies also have much more robust sets of data that better encapsulate public opinion, they could share that quarterly or even just sell reports to news outlets.
But polls are so unreliable and so many people blindly trust and believe them, eliminating that entire class of reporting would be preferable to continuing to publish and circulate that information.
Polls seemed pretty reliable when it came to the election.
Have you seen the final count of the vote (which was released a week or two ago)? Neither candidate won the popular vote (Trump 49.9%, Kamala 48.4%) which was not predicted by the polling. They were projecting a very close race, but everything else was wrong.
Pew Research is pretty much a gold standard. In a recent survey on Ukraine they polled almost 10,000 https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2024/11/25/wide-partisan-divisions-remain-in-americans-views-of-the-war-in-ukraine/
Also they post their dataset and methodology. Any poll/survey that doesn’t do that is reasonably suspect.
This Pew Research?
The one with this page entitled, “How can a survey of 1,000 people tell you what the whole U.S. thinks?”
https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2017/05/12/methods-101-random-sampling/
Did you even watch the video? Do you not see the difference between what Pew does with a 1,000 people and what fucking CNBC does?
I thought the argument was that you couldn’t get an accurate sample size of Americans with just 1000 people, not that CNBC’s methodology was wrong.
Read what I wrote slowly again. I said Pew was the gold standard, said how many they polled in a recent survey as an example, and highlighted that they posted their data and methodology. I never said there was a minimum.
CNBC doesn’t provide any of their data, has no published methodology - this might as well be results from an online survey like Fox News does all the time.