Even if he was the only one saying that, why are we giving him credit for it?
Maybe he was the first, but going forward anyone can follow his example and say things like, “Harris has a very real chance of winning. So does Trump. Also, Cruz and Allred both have very real chances of winning. So do Elizabeth Warren and her opponent, John Deaton”.
Silver showed that if you hedge by replacing a testable prediction with a tautology, then you can avoid criticism regardless of the result. I don’t think that is useful political analysis.
Even if he was the only one saying that, why are we giving him credit for it?
Maybe he was the first, but going forward anyone can follow his example and say things like, “Harris has a very real chance of winning. So does Trump. Also, Cruz and Allred both have very real chances of winning. So do Elizabeth Warren and her opponent, John Deaton”.
Silver showed that if you hedge by replacing a testable prediction with a tautology, then you can avoid criticism regardless of the result. I don’t think that is useful political analysis.